Better Than Honour Strikes Again!

Broodmare extraordinaire Better Than Honour struck again on Sunday, when Cascading, the 2-year-old daughter of her daughter Teeming (Storm Cat), won the Glorious Song Stakes at Woodbine in only her third start. Watch the race replay here. A beautiful ride by Patrick Husbands, and a good training job by Josie Carroll who’s having quite a run with fillies these days, most notably G1 Alabama winner Careless Jewel. With her pedigree—by A.P. Indy, just like Rags to Riches—one can only hope that Cascading has a brilliant 3-year-old campaign ahead of her.

Can’t IEAH do anything simple? First, they buy Diamondrella, run her in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (where she finished 11th of 14), then ship her to Kentucky for the Fasig-Tipton sale only to buy her back at $1.1 million, and now ship her back to California and place her with new trainer Gary Stevens. She’s schedule to run in the November 28 G1 Matriarch at Hollywood. Not that I wish Diamondrella ill-will, but no wonder Michael Iavarone needs a burly bodyguard—those IEAH investors must be pissed with him flinging money away, flying her back and forth, paying Fasig-Tipton’s fees and now probably having a horse that is not in prime condition after her cross-country misadventure.

And since I’m mini-ranting, it blows my mind that a quality racemare like Indian Blessing is being sent to an unproven sire (and frankly dubious-quality racehorse) in the form of Zensational. I don’t know how much sway Bob Baffert has over his owners, but, damn, if Hal and Patti Earnhardt are buying his bullshit... “The reason we are breeding Indian Blessing to Zensational is to come up with the perfect Thoroughbred. They were both unbelievable on the racetrack with perfect conformation and exceptional brilliance. We are all after the super horse, and I was blessed to train both of them.”...then they deserve whatever crappy horse is produced.

While Foolish Pleasure’s success at stud was marginal at best, as I’ve mentioned on this blog two or three...okay, maybe a zillion...times, his influence continues in the damline of some very nice turf horses—Grand Couturier, Banrock and Get Stormy, who won the G3 Commonwealth Turf at Churchill in stakes-record time on Sunday for trainer Tom Bush. He’s matured a great deal this year, finally stretching out beyond a mile, and, with a much-deserved break, he looks to be even better as a 4-year-old in 2010. What a looker too, with his sire Stormy Atlantic’s bay coloring and wide blaze, but with four white stockings!



With only five starters, you might not take a second-glance at Aqueduct’s Race 3 this coming Thursday, but it depresses me as it’s filled with has-beens and might-have-beens. Two millionaires—recent G2 Suburban winner Dry Martini and G2 UAE Derby victor Honour Devil—join the much-ballyhooed Peruvian “mystery” horse Tomcito (remember him?), along with 2007 G3 Stuyvesant winner Hunting (a 6-year-old gelding in for a $100k tag—after winning less than $70k in the past two years?) and 5-year-old Giant Chieftan (sic), a $950k yearling purchase that has earned a grand total of $187,957 in 22 lifetime races.

Gaining Momentum?

Is it possible that a movement to honor both Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta as co-Horse of the Year Eclipse Awards is gaining momentum? The Saratogian’s Jeff Scott and the New York Post’s Ray Kerrison may have been the first mainstream journalists to suggest thinking “outside the box” and putting a joint option on the final ballot or just outright declaring the two co-winners, but their voices have now been joined by a number of other revered turf writers, including Steve Haskin at The BloodHorse who rightly recognizes:

“I realize I’m talking from the heart and not being analytical or realistic at all, but the campaigns of 5-year-old Zenyatta and 3-year-old Rachel Alexandra are so far removed from each other, and orchestrated with such different goals in mind, they cannot be compared, despite all the analysis and statistics. Therefore, the Horse of the Year award in this case should be voted on with the heart, and the heck with all the meaningless statistical comparisons. That means there is only one course of action: give it to both of them and make everyone happy. Why not? Who is it going to hurt?”

Now, the Daily Racing Form’s Steven Crist has weighed in:

“The question is whether an option to crown co-champions should be added to the Eclipse ballot....It's at least worth consideration. Regardless of your preference, there is no denying that both Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta accomplished entirely different but genuinely unprecedented things that will land them both in the Hall of Fame and stamp them as among the greatest fillies and mares of all time. Neither deserves to lose the title, and there is no rule that one of them has to: One of the virtues of the Eclipse system is that it has no ancient rules and bylaws, and the voters can pretty much do what they want.

If it turns out in the weeks ahead that a majority of the voters favor a joint award, why deprive them of that choice?”

Amen.

Yes, Virginia, There is Life after the Breeders’ Cup

After basking in the gloaming of a reasonably successful Breeders’ Cup—one, however, that only firmed the penumbra position of real dirt racing in America—it was back to business as usual with a host of premature retirement announcements. Among them, lightly-raced synthetic sprinter Zensational who will stand for $25,000 at Hill ‘n’ Dale—exactly what the sport needs, another Unbridled’s Song son breeding! Conduit will race once more before standing stud in Japan, while Mastercraftsman will stand in Ireland.

Beyond the promised return next year of geldings Cloudy’s Knight, Presious Passion and Mine That Bird, I’m most looking forward to Summer Bird who should only ripen into a magnificent older dirt horse, the quality and quantity of which (not withstanding Curlin) has been severely lacking in recent years as so many 3-year-olds (Street Sense, Hard Spun, Big Brown, etc.) retired well before really proving themselves on the racetrack. Others returning include Cannonball who embarks on a Pacific Rim campaign, beginning in Hong Kong and then on to Australia, before heading back to Ascot next summer, and Rags to Riches’ half-brother Man of Iron who will aim for Dubai’s spring carnival.

Those fillies and mares retired or likely to be retired include Music Note, Cocoa Beach, Zenyatta, Ventura, and Seventh Street—but the good news is, in 2010, we will be able to enjoy the likes of Goldikova, Informed Decision, Sara Louise, Rainbow View, Dar Re Mi, and Rachel Alexandra (not to mention a Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs).

Sayonara, Azeri ($2.25 million), Magical Fantasy ($1.8 million), Lady Joanne ($1.6 million), Ginger Punch ($1.6 million) and Laragh ($850,000)—Japanese buyers raided the fall sales on Tuesday, coming away with all of the aforementioned G1 winners. They also acquired G1-placed Jardin and the unraced Loves Only Me, half-sister to European champion 2-year-old Rumplestiltskin, whose dam is a full-sister of Kingmambo, out of the champion Miesque. Talk about some nice bloodlines!

Among those who failed to meet their reserve at Fasig-Tipton were Diamondrella ($1.1 million) and Honey Ryder ($1.25 million), while those removed from the sale included recent G2 Raven Run winner Satans Quick Chick, G1-placed Silver Swallow, G1-placed Dubai Majesty, G1-placed Justwhistledixie, and Xtra Heat’s promising daughter Elusive Heat.

Finally, a plethora of analysis and commentary regarding the paramount issue du jour—who should be Horse of the Year—is out there, and you’ll find none better than those of Lisa Grimm (Superfecta), Teresa Genara (Brooklyn Backstretch), Gary West (West Points), Jeff Scott (The Saratogian) and, for historical perspective, Kevin Martin (Colin’s Ghost).

As I alluded to in a previous (albeit abbreviated) post, I (and other more highly-respected industry insiders) firmly believe this year deserves co-Horses of the Year, as both Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra are equally worthy. It's not like it hasn't happened before.

And don’t give me that bullshit about the Breeders’ Cup being the “World Championships” (it’s not—deal with it) or it “cheapening” the award by not selecting one over the other—this isn’t the damn electoral college or something equally profoundly important. It’s just a stupid award which, frankly, no one outside of the industry will even care about so why affect discord and hostility among what few fans remain? Let’s be adults, put aside our bias about the horses’ owners and their campaigns, and just celebrate two equally spectacular performances. Honestly, this sport does its damnest to piss people off on the smallest things rather than take on and fight the really important battles.

I Couldn’t Have Said It Better

“That was probably the greatest performance I've ever seen. Fantastic. I'm happy and proud for Zenyatta and glad I was here to see that. I never saw Secretariat run but I've never seen anything like her. I'm really torn when it comes to the Horse of the Year. I'm probably Zenyatta's biggest fan, but it's also hard to forget what Rachel Alexandra did. If ever there was a year to split the award, this is it.”—Eoin Harty

“That was one of the greatest moments I've witnessed in my life and I'm not only talking about horse racing. She not only won but it was the way she won that made this so special because she did it with something to spare. We've now been privileged to have seen two great fillies in the same year, and it's impossible to say one was better than the other. For the good of the sport, they've got to give them both the Horse of the Year award because it just wouldn't be fair for one of them to lose. I know one thing, if they do split it, nobody will be mad.” –Angel Cordero, Jr.

Breeders' Cup Saturday

All in all, I quite enjoyed Friday’s races, although I still got too fancy and only cashed one winning ticket—a PS on Mushka in the Distaff (I’ve decided to stop toeing the party line in calling it the “Ladies’ Classic”).

In the Marathon, Rags to Riches’ 1/2 brother Man of Iron bested Cloudy’s Knight by the smallest of margins—what a heart-breaker! Still, that performance, along with Informed Decision’s surprisingly-easy victory in the F&M Sprint and Forever Together’s third in the F&M Turf, put trainer Jonathan Sheppard tops in my eyes. What is it with gray Tapit fillies? Tapitsfly impressed in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, battling wire-to-wire with Todd Pletcher’s Rose Catherine—and the much-ballyhooed Euro Lillie Langtry was a complete non-factor, well back in eighth. I wasn’t as convinced as others on Twitter that the impeded Biofuel would have caught either She Be Wild or Beautician in the Juvenile Fillies.

Midday chalked one up for the Euros in the F&M Turf, with Forever Together disappointingly third. Probably the biggest surprise placing of the day was 35-1 Free Flying Soul’s third-place finish in the F&M Sprint, but that early speed and rail really aided her. And, by the by, she is a damline descendent of Foolish Pleasure, being out of the Farma Way mare Ruby Surprise who won the G2 Humana Distaff as a 5-year-old. And, boy, didn’t Life Is Sweet prove much-the-best? I liked Mushka coming off that Keeneland win, and Rajiv Maragh (who otherwise had a tough day) made a nice inside move on Music Note to get up for third. Careless Jewel is a filly with (hopefully) an amazing future—she just ran too greenly against these.

For whatever it's worth, here are my picks for Saturday. Good luck!


Juvenile Turf (1:45 p.m. Eastern)
Interactif cuts back in distance off two G3 wins on turf. Becky’s Kitten was runner-up to Bridgetown in the G3 Summer Stakes at Woodbine. The best of the Euros on paper is Pounced, runner-up in the G1 Grand Criterium one month ago; with Lasix, he’ll attempt a route for the first time. Runner-up in the G2 Champagne at Doncaster last out, Viscount Nelson is bred to run all day and has regular rider John Murtagh aboard—but no Lasix.

For a longshot chance, I like the Irish-raced maiden winner King Ledley. In his last race at The Curragh, he beat Beethoven who subsequently won the ENG-G1 Dewhurst; he’s also been working well in advance of this, first at Keeneland, and then Santa Anita. Local leading jockey Rafael Bejarano takes the ride, as he runs with Lasix for the first time. Oh, and did I mention his dam Mt. Kobla is a half-sister to Quality Road?

$1 Trifecta box: Viscount Nelson, Becky’s Kitten, Interactif (2, 10, 11)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: King Ledley (8)



Turf Sprint (2:23 p.m. Eastern)
What a hot mess this field is, with more contenders than toss-outs. I’ll just root for the fillies and mares, with Diamondrella coming in off a victory in the G1 First Lady over Forever Together, G1-placed Gotta Have Her enjoying a terrific year for trainer Jenine Sahadi, and front-running Canadian Ballet for Linda Rice. Former Rice trainee Silver Timber (claimed for $25k back in April) comes in off two G3 victories and a narrow loss to ENG-G1 Golden Jubilee runner-up Cannonball. California Flag is undefeated in three starts since failing in last year’s BC Turf Sprint—tossed exercise rider and ran back to barn earlier this week.

$1 Trifecta box: Cannonball, Gotta Have Her, Diamondrella (6, 7, 10)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Canadian Ballet (10)



Sprint (3:10 p.m. Eastern)
Instead of returning in the Turf Sprint, Fleeting Spirit attempts the shorter Sprint, and should be a handful for these boys to handle. She’s won or placed in 4 G1 events this year, including a win in the G1 July Cup and a close second to international sprint champion Scenic Blast in the G1 King’s Stand at Royal Ascot—100% quality. With Fatal Bullet and Zensational likely to set a speedy pace (possibly with Join In The Dance), it sets up well for both her and G1 Ancient Title victor Gayego. While he doesn’t have the big speed figures of Zensational, the pace scenario could set up more favorably for Capt. Candyman Can.

$1 Trifecta box: Fatal Bullet, Gayego, Fleeting Spirit (3, 5, 9)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Capt. Candyman Can (8)



Juvenile (3:49 p.m Eastern)
Without all-weather or turf experience, I just can’t back D’Funnybone at his short price, but G1 Norfolk victor Lookin At Lucky comes in looking strong—only the far outside (13) post is bothersome. From the East, G1 Breeders’ Futurity winner Noble’s Promise won at this distance last out and held off the nicely-closing Aikenite. Of the Europeans, Beethoven is the best tried—a positive (experience) but also a possible negative (tired from a long campaign).

$1 Trifecta box: Noble’s Promise, Aikenite, Lookin At Lucky (4, 9, 13)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Beethoven (3)



Turf Mile (4:28 p.m. Eastern)
Defending champion Goldikova won 3 G1 races in July and August, but surprisingly failed in her last effort before this—vulnerable? I like the form line of Zacinto, who looks to continue Juddmonte’s BC success this year, and Cowboy Cal has early speed which bodes well for his chances.

No horse in this field is better bred to be a Breeders’ Cup winner than Justenuffhumor. Not only is he a half-brother to 2006 BC Juvenile Fillies champion Dreaming of Anna, but his dam Justenuffheart is also a half-sister to 2004 BC Turf runner-up Kitten’s Joy and multiple-G1 victress Precious Kitten. If only he can get enough speed to run at, an upset possibility. Ditto for Ferneley who has excellent form behind Ventura last out in the G1 Woodbine Mile.

$1 Trifecta box: Cowboy Cal, Zacinto, Goldikova (3, 8, 11)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Justenuffhumor (10) or Ferneley (7)



Dirt Mile (5:12 p.m. Eastern)
It’s impossible to look beyond the form line of Mastercraftsman, especially behind Arc winner Sea the Stars, and his facile victory over all-weather surface at Dundalk last out. Plus, this field is just weak. After prolonged contemplation (mostly negative), I just can’t put Pyro in the final three, even after his G1 Forego win—not convinced he likes all-weather surfaces (that horrific G1 Bluegrass still haunts me). Bullsbay also has strong form—but did nothing in the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup. Last year’s G1 BC Juvenile champ Midshipman has only 1 race since then (an AOC at Belmont) so not sure how ready he is. I’m tempted to toss in Furthest Land off his G2 Kentucky Cup Classic win at Turfway last out, and even Mr. Sidney off his turf form. Chocolate Candy has just broken my heart too many times and Calvin Borel on Ready’s Echo isn’t a positive. For a bomber, why not turfster Mambo Meister?

$1 Trifecta box: Mastercraftsman, Furthest Land, Mr. Sidney (1, 2, 8)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Mambo Meister (6)



Turf (5:57 p.m. Eastern)
All talk is about the Euros Conduit and Dar Re Mi, but I believe Presious Passion can steal this. He loves the rock-hard turf, and has a good record over this track—just firing on all cylinders in advance of this. If he doesn’t freak in the post parade, Spanish Moon has a very good chance.

$1 Trifecta box: Conduit, Spanish Moon, Presious Passion (2, 6, 7)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Telling (1)



Classic (6:45 p.m. Eastern)
Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Zenyatta—she’s going to get a ton of money, but enough speed to run at? I think it will be Einstein who takes this, probably with Zenyatta within a half-length, followed by either Richard’s Kid or Twice Over. I absolutely love Summer Bird, but the surface is a huge question mark. If he does win, it would be very tough—regardless of how their one-on-one match-up ended—to not seriously consider him for Horse of the Year. Sorry, I’m not willing to concede this to the Euros this year.


$1 Trifecta box: Zenyatta, Richard’s Kid, Einstein (4, 6, 8)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Twice Over (5)

Analysis Paralysis

Analysis Paralysis: a situation where the sheer quantity of analysis overwhelms the decision making process itself.

As I wrote in my most recent blog post for the NTRA, I was determined this year to follow the simple yet profound adage “Keep It Simple, Stupid.” Last year I drove myself crazy in advance of the Breeders’ Cup by picking apart every little detail, reading every single article, pondering all possible scenarios—all to no avail when it simply came down to this: every horse that won over Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride surface had previous all-weather surface or turf experience, and European horses dominated.

What's more, despite all the hype, each race is still just a race, so why not handicap them in the same way? After all, the fundamentals still apply...

With that in mind, here are my impressions for Friday’s Breeders’ Cup races—prime contenders and longshot potentials, as I see it.

Marathon (3:35 p.m. Eastern)
Perhaps the most spectacularly difficult to handicap, as there are far too few races of this distance in North America, let alone quality races. It’s all about pace and stamina. Last year’s winner Muhannak is back, but doesn’t have the same strong form coming into this race, thus I can’t back him. I love 9-year-old Cloudy’s Knight who is back in form after a long layoff and rehabilitation for new trainer Jonathan Sheppard. He is a G1 winner against international competitors (2007 Canadian International), a class edge certainly over his fellow North Americans—but he’s never run on an artificial surface.

Of the Europeans, Godolphin’s 3-year-old Mastery looks strongest, with a G1 win in the English St. Leger last out, and a placing this year in the 2 mile ENG-G3 Queen’s Vase at Ascot. He’s beaten Father Time twice this year, but that one likes a faster pace which he should get with Black Astor likely to be sent (à la Presious Passion) to the early lead with, according to trainer Todd Pletcher, Nite Light prominent as well.

Of the longshots, Eldaafer appeals to me in terms of his connections and stamina potential. Man of Iron interests me not because he’s a half-brother to G1 Belmont victress Rags to Riches, but his two all-weather victories this year (albeit in allowance company—but, hey, Muhannak didn’t have much more last year).

However, the one that most peaks my interest is Gangbuster who ran well fresh with Kent Desormeaux up in the Fort Harrod at Keeneland, winning by nearly 11 lengths. After running sixth to Brass Hat in the G3 Louisville Handicap on turf, he returned to Polytrack, finishing second behind Rumor Has It at this distance in Arlington’s Polar Expedition Stakes. In the 12-furlong Cougar II Handicap at Del Mar, he finished fourth, just two lengths behind victor Usual Suspect, the talented Richard’s Kid, and last year’s Marathon runner-up Church Service. His performance in the G3 Turfway Park Fall Championship wasn’t good, but off a freshening, and with Kent back aboard for his brother Keith, I think Gangbuster is a real threat for a piece of the exotics, if not an out-and-out winner.

$1 Trifecta box: Cloudy’s Knight, Father Time, Mastery (4, 5, 6)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Gangbuster (10)



Juvenile Fillies Turf (4:08 p.m. Eastern)
Aidan O’Brien-trained Lillie Langtry is G1-placed in Europe, which will garner support for her, but I think there are plenty of strong candidates from this side of the Atlantic. Lightly-raced House of Grace is 2 for 2 (one on turf, the other Polytrack), and both wins came at a half furlong longer than this race—the drop back in distance is surely a positive. Smart Seattle finished just behind her last out, and looked better on turf in her previous effort. From all accounts, Tapitsfly is working gangbusters since arriving in California, and looks to rebound from disappointing effort in the off-turf Miss Grillo at Belmont—a race that had only three runners, which completely threw out any real pace. If she runs back to her form in the P.G. Johnson Stakes at Saratoga, she’ll be tough to beat.

Other possible exotic players: Steve Asmussen’s sole Breeders’ Cup entry, Jungle Tale, was a narrow second-place finisher in the 8 furlong G3 Natalma over the Woodbine turf last out. Todd Pletcher-trained Rose Catherine comes in off an impressive 6 furlong maiden win.

My longshot flyer is Potosina who comes in off a victory in Belmont’s 8.5 furlong Good Mood Stakes over a soft turf. She’s out of hot sire Cactus Ridge whose 3-year-old daughter Hot Cha Cha recently won the grassy G1 QE II Challenge Cup; her dam was not only champion turf mare in Chile, but has also produced two Chilean champion turf fillies. Being an on-pace runner breaking from the rail with Johnny Velazquez aboard again, I think she’s a strong possibility to finish in the top three.

$1 Trifecta box: Smart Seattle, House of Grace, Tapitsfly (3, 7, 10)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Potosina (1)



Juvenile Fillies (4:45 p.m. Eastern)
I see this as an “East vs. West” competition, with Keeneland’s G1 Alcibiades and Santa Anita’s G1 Oak Leaf as the two major form lines.

From the East, Negligee impressively won the Alcibiades and has worked well in advance of this—but draws so far out (10) that I’m not hopeful of victory. She Be Wild lost to Negligee last out, but gets a more favorable post (8) and jockey change to Julien Leparoux. Beautician ran into all kinds of problems in the Alcibiades; a jockey change to Robbie Albarado and strong works at Santa Anita bode well for her chances.

Oak Leaf winner Blind Luck drew post 3, while runner-up Always a Princess is unfortunately stranded out in post 11. It’s actually the third-place finisher from the Oak Leaf that appeals to me—Kelly Breen-trained Bickersons has posted three impressive works since that race, draws post 5, and gains the services of local sensation Joel Rosario. At morning line 20-1, I’m all over her here.

Of the others, the ill-named Connie and Michael comes in off a maiden win at Keeneland—is she special enough to handle far more experienced fillies? Devil May Care put on a gutsy performance winning the G1 Frizette, but has zero all-weather or turf experience.

$1 Trifecta box: Beautician, Bickersons, Negligee (4, 5, 10)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Bickersons (5)



Filly & Mare Turf (5:23 p.m. Eastern)
Defending champion Forever Together is back, but off two consecutive losses, I don’t see her as unbeatable. Magical Fantasy is on a four-race win streak, including victories over the likes of Visit and Black Mamba. With her experience over this track, she’s a major threat. Pure Clan had her number last year, and comes in on an upswing—though with new rider Garrett Gomez, as Leparoux sticks with Forever Together. The lone European entry Midday has excellent form, including a G1 victory over this distance in August. With Lasix for the first time, she’s hard to leave out of the exotics. I also like Rutherienne who has twice finished behind Forever Together this year, but the distance is such a concern.

$1 Trifecta box: Forever Together, Magical Fantasy, Midday (2, 4, 6)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Rutherienne (3)



Filly & Mare Sprint (6:02 p.m. Eastern)
My full analysis for this race is available at the NTRA site here, but I’m leaning more and more towards Ventura on top and Informed Decision back in third or even out of the money. I can’t fully articulate my uneasy. However, if Leparoux is riding well prior to this race, I’ll give her a bigger chance. I do think one (or both) of the two Godolphin fillies will be tough. I’m particularly fond of Seventh Street, but Sara Louise is the fresh, hot young thing, and from all accounts has taken to the Pro-Ride surface. Much like the then 3-year-old Indian Blessing, I think Sara Louise will finish second behind Ventura.

$1 Trifecta box: Sara Louise, Informed Decision, Ventura (2, 8, 9)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Evita Argentina (6)



Ladies’ Classic (6:45 p.m. Eastern)
The Godolphin duo that finished second and third behind Zenyatta in last year’s Ladies’ Classic (Distaff) return once more. If you asked me back in June about Cocoa Beach’s chances of being here, I’d respond with great skepticism, but she put in a good effort against Zenyatta and Lethal Heat in the G1 Lady’s Secret last out, and has been working well over the track. Still, she had beaten Ginger Punch coming into this race last year...With an even more limited preparation, her stablemate Music Note is the one I prefer, with victories over Indian Blessing and Informed Decision in the 7-furlong G1 Ballerina and over the in-form Unbridled Belle in the G1 Beldame. Rajiv Maragh has been riding her a treat, so I give her a big chance from post 7.

Careless Jewel and Rainbow View will get lots of support, but I believe their youth won’t overcome these saltier competitors. While Life Is Sweet has good form (particularly behind her stablemate Zenyatta), I just think she was better earlier in the year. Lethal Heat also looks a threat, and I wouldn’t be disappointed if she won, but I’m not sure she can carry her speed against these.

For a longshot, I like Mushka. In her two all-weather races—both victories at Keeneland over this distance—she’s posted strong times, and she’s rounding into form unlike the others who may have peaked earlier.

$1 Trifecta box: Mushka, Cocoa Beach, Music Note (3, 6, 7)
$2 WPS longshot flyer: Lethal Heat (4)

The Race That Stops a Nation

Photo: Phar Lap winning the 1930 Melbourne Cup


Over 100,000 people on track, as well as millions of others across Australia and around the world will stop and watch the A$5.5 million AUS-G1 Melbourne Cup on Tuesday (Monday, 11 p.m. Eastern here in the U.S.). Run for the first time in 1861, the 3200 meter (2 miles) race is one of the most prestigious horse races in the world—a true staying test and stallion-maker, although sixteen times the race has been won by fillies and mares, including three consecutive years by the legendary Makybe Diva.

Last year’s winner Viewed (Scenic-Lovers Knot, by Khozaam) was a revelation, particularly for American bettors—he paid $186 win, $57.70 place and $29.10 show. He also represented the 12th Melbourne Cup winner for trainer Bart Cummings, and a record-tying fourth winner for owner Dato Tan Chin Nam. The same connections have a very real chance to repeat this year, as Viewed comes in off a victory in the G1 Caulfield Cup and, just three days ago, finished third in the G1 Mackinnon. Jockey Brad Rawiller is seeking his first Cup win on the favorite.

Don’t overlook the other Bart Cummings’ entries, though. Roman Emperor (Montjeu-Gussy Godiva, by Last Tycoon) finished second to his stablemate Viewed in the Caulfield Cup—and (as an aside to American racing fans) his dam is a half-sister to the recently-retired G1-winning Black Mamba. The distance should not be a problem for him, as Hugh Bowman rides. Michelle Payne attempts to become the first female jockey to win the Melbourne Cup, as she rides Bart’s third entry, 4-year-old mare Allez Wonder, recent winner of the G1 Toorak. I’d be shocked if she gets 3200 meters, but Bart is a magician.

Others to watch for:

Alcopop is bred to be a Melbourne Cup winner. His sire Jeune won the 1994 edition, his second dam Petite Luck is by 1986 winner Al Talaq, and his damsire Blevic is the son of Scenic who sired last year’s Cup winner Viewed. He’s won 7 of 10 races, but this is a major class test. Still, he’s running second favorite to Viewed.

Four-year-old New Zealand mare Daffodil would appreciate a little sting out of the track, but she’s top class. She finished an impressive fall campaign with a win in the G1 AJC Oaks over 2400 meters (1-1/2 miles), and having built up steadily this campaign with a win in the G1 Windsor Park Plate and a close-up fourth-place finish in the G1 Kelt Capital, both in New Zealand, before finishing a nice fourth behind Viewed in the G1 Caulfield Cup. She does break from the outside post 21, and you better believe previous Melbourne Cup winning (Jezabeel, 1998) jockey Chris Munce is driven to redeem his tainted reputation with a big effort. If only the turf were a little softer...still, she’s a big chance.

A win by 4-year-old Shocking would further validate his sire Street Cry. After six races this campaign, he looks to be in top form, having finished second to Alcopop in the G2 Herbert Power, then second to quality stayer Baughurst in the G3 Coongy Cup, and finally a win three days ago in the G3 Lexus. Corey Brown rides.

Quality 5-year-old mare Leica Ding is in career-best form, having won the G3 Geelong Cup last out. She’s already won at 3000 meters, and has been increasing in distance every race this campaign. Jockey Craig Williams and trainer Darren Weir are a potent duo, and she only carries 111 lbs here.


Wouldn’t be a huge surprise:

Particularly if there’s an off-track, look for Fiumicino. He led nearly all the way, before fading to sixth in April’s G1 Sydney Cup over this distance, and he’s rounding back into form, with a third place finish in the G1 Metropolitan on October 3, and a fifth-place in the recent Caulfield Cup. Jockey Steven King won the 1991 Melbourne Cup, with Bart Cummings’ mare Let’s Elope.

Seven-year-old Master O’Reilly finished fourth in last year’s race, and comes in here after four successive G1 efforts out-of-the-money versus younger up-and-comers Whobegotyou, Heart of Dreams and Predatory Pricer. With his experience and regular jockey Vlad Duric up, he could be ready for another good effort.

The 7-year-old war horse Zavite won the G1 Adelaide Cup at this distance back in March, and prefers a rock-hard track which is very likely. He finished fourth behind Alcopop in the G2 Herbert Power two starts ago, and appears to be rounding into form at just the right time. Although he usually leads, trainer Anthony Cummings (Bart’s son) has said it isn’t necessary so it will be interesting what they do with him. Mark Zahra is up.

Of the European invaders, Warringah interests me most. Not only does he gain the services of two-time Cup winning jockey Damien Oliver, but also gets a significant weight drop from his recent races—he’ll only carry 116 lbs, as opposed to between 128 and 136 lbs in Europe. He’ll definitely be on pace, and will relish the firm footing.


Key to the race:

Probably even more important than a horse’s staying ability and preparation is the rider. This is a jockey’s race, and the key is to sit, be patient and position your horse just right for the last big push in the home stretch.


Selections:

This is tough, and a lot will depend on the track condition and how they look parading. Without a doubt, one if not more of Bart Cummings’ horses will be in the top three, and personally I’m hoping for a chalky Viewed-Alcopop exacta—it’s the “Foolish Pleasure” factor that has been so prolific this past year Down Under, through his daughter Idyllic’s son Scenic. I’ll probably tinker around with a complex trifecta that includes Daffodil, Roman Emperor, Shocking and Leica Ding.

Who do you like?